Russian banks risk losing over 100 billion rubles due to the digital ruble.

Annual losses in fee income for Russian banks due to the introduction of the central bank's digital currency could exceed 100 billion rubles, while the outflow of liabilities could reach 10% over five years, according to estimates from experts at the National Rating Agency (NRA).

The payback on investments in integrating the digital ruble will be long, especially for smaller credit institutions, Kommersant reports.

NRA analysts identified the reduction in acquiring operations as the main factor driving the decline in bankers' income. Settlements in digital rubles will be processed on the Bank of Russia platform, rather than through commercial banks. However, such losses are likely only when the digital ruble reaches at least 14% of total non-cash transactions. If this happens, given the 67 trillion rubles in Russian bank accounts, the outflow of funds will amount to 1-1.5 trillion rubles annually. This represents a significant blow to banks' margins, according to the NRA.

The National Research Agency (NRA) estimates the cost of implementing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) at 100–300 million rubles for each bank. Analysts believe it will take years to recoup this investment: with a 0.1% commission for digital ruble transactions, a bank would need to process 10 billion rubles in payments.

Viktor Dostov, head of the Association of Electronic Money Market Participants, believes that the loss of commission income will be insignificant in the first two years due to the low transaction volumes. However, if the state switches payments to public sector employees and pensioners to the digital ruble, the consequences for bankers could be extremely painful.

NRA experts modeled three scenarios for the digital ruble's penetration into circulation: conservative, baseline, and optimistic. Depending on the scenario, the CBDC's share of money circulation could range from 5% to 30% in five to seven years. The study's authors consider the baseline scenario—15–24%—to be the most realistic. However, experts don't expect a significant increase in the popularity of the digital ruble in the next year or two.

Analysts noted the experience of China, where the digital yuan was launched earlier than the CBDC in Russia. Despite active incentive measures, including the distribution of "helicopter money," it has still not been possible to achieve a significant share of transactions involving the digital yuan.

Starting September 1, 12 of Russia's largest banks are required to allow customers to work with the digital ruble, and large retail chains are required to accept it as a form of payment. Taras Skvortsov, Deputy Chairman of the Management Board and Chief Financial Officer of Sberbank, stated that there is currently no strong demand for the digital ruble among Russians; it is of interest only to the Central Bank itself.