Alex Thorn: Bitcoin’s bear trend has ended — here’s what comes next

The bearish trend in the Bitcoin market ended back in June, and the leading cryptocurrency is now in an accumulation phase, according to Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital.

To support his outlook, Thorn pointed to the behavior of technical indicators. During the June downturn, Bitcoin held its ground near its 200-week moving average. In September, the price rose above the 50-week moving average—following 44 weeks of trading below that level—and as of October 18, the asset had remained above this line for five consecutive weeks.

Thorn also noted a decline in activity from large-scale sellers. According to Galaxy Digital’s calculations, in 2024, holders of Bitcoin that had remained dormant for over five years moved an average of 67,000 BTC per month; by 2026, this figure had dropped to 34,000 BTC. Meanwhile, asset managers have reduced their net long positions in Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) by 57% compared to October of last year.

The analyst further cited demand from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a key factor. Since the June low, the combined holdings of these ETFs have increased by 87,000 BTC. In Thorn’s view, the reduction in speculative positions, coupled with sustained interest from long-term investors, signals a weakening of selling pressure.

The expert recalled that during the 2015–2016 and 2018–2019 periods, the focus of major financial institutions shifted from Bitcoin itself toward broader blockchain technology. Following the lows reached during those periods, the leading cryptocurrency went on to see gains of 83x and 20x, respectively, by the peaks of the subsequent market cycles. Thorn currently observes a similar shift in interest toward stablecoins and tokenization.

The analyst views the rise of the U.S. national debt to $40.44 trillion—with annual debt-servicing costs reaching $1.28 trillion—as further arguments in favor of Bitcoin, given its limited supply. According to his assessment, the price could once again reach $125,000. However, Thorn noted that if the price falls below $76,540 and fails to recover to that level within a month, he would need to revise his forecast.

Previously, CryptoQuant expert Axel Adler suggested that Bitcoin’s bear cycle might not conclude until 2027. He estimates that the accumulation phase for the leading cryptocurrency could potentially last until the middle of next year.